Three honest questions about buying Bitcoin and altcoins this month, and what I's_actual_ly doing with my own portfolio.

First: is Bitcoin cheap right now at 78K? Not really. Every prior cycle (2018, 2020, 2022, COVID crash) Bitcoin touched or went below the 200-week SMA at the bottom. We bounced at 60.5K this time and haven't gone there yet, which means there's still a high-probability scenario where Bitcoin revisits the low 60Ks before the bull market is confirmed.

Second: is May the right month to buy Bitcoin? My take: do nothing if you already hold. If you don't, slow DCA over six months is the cleanest way to build a position without timing risk.

Third: when do altcoins actually become cheap? Two specific on-chain conditions need to hit at the same time. Bitcoin needs to drop to the low 60Ks (the 200W SMA at $60.5K), AND the Total2-versus-BTC ratio needs to fall below 0.4. The ratio has bottomed between 0.36 and 0.41 in every prior bear market bottom, every single one. As of right now we're at 0.41 to 0.42, so we're close, but not there yet.

When both conditions hit at the same time, that's my signal to deploy the last 20% of my portfolio into altcoins. I already hold 80% Bitcoin from the low 60Ks and I'm not selling Bitcoin to rotate. The 20% reserve is for the moment of peak altcoin pain when the crowd thinks crypto is dead.

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Chapters

0:00 Intro
0:08 Why Altcoins Crash Every Cycle
0:35 Condition 1: The 200-Week Bitcoin SMA
1:35 Bitcoin's Daily Uptrend (Why 60K Is Months Away)
2:55 Bear Market Not Yet Confirmed
3:20 Why I'm Holding 80% Bitcoin and Doing Nothing
4:35 The Pivot to Altcoins
5:00 Condition 2: The Total2/BTC Ratio
6:35 Timing the Ratio Bottom (Four-Week View)
7:00 Why Both Signals Need to Hit Together
7:30 Which Altcoins I'm Targeting (ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, TRX)
8:00 Nobody Wants to Touch Altcoins. That's When You Buy.
9:00 The Two-Condition Entry Rule (Exact Levels)
10:00 What the Charts Will Look Like When It's Time
10:50 The Risk: Missing the Rally
11:20 My Current Positioning (80% Bitcoin)
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📜 Disclaimer 📜

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial, legal, or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses a considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.

#Bitcoin #Altcoins #Crypto #BTC #Altseason