Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects.
Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep459-sb
See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.

Transcript:
lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert…

CONTACT LEX:
Feedback - give feedback to Lex: lexfridman.com/survey
AMA - submit questions, videos or call-in: lexfridman.com/ama
Hiring - join our team: lexfridman.com/hiring
Other - other ways to get in touch: lexfridman.com/contact

EPISODE LINKS:
Dylan's X: x.com/dylan522p
SemiAnalysis: semianalysis.com/
Nathan's X: x.com/natolambert
Nathan's Blog: www.interconnects.ai/
Nathan's Podcast: www.interconnects.ai/podcast
Nathan's Website: www.natolambert.com/
Nathan's YouTube:    / @natolambert  
Nathan's Book: rlhfbook.com/

SPONSORS:
To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts:
Invideo AI: AI video generator.
Go to lexfridman.com/s/invideoai-ep459-sb
GitHub: Developer platform and AI code editor.
Go to lexfridman.com/s/github-ep459-sb
Shopify: Sell stuff online.
Go to lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep459-sb
NetSuite: Business management software.
Go to lexfridman.com/s/netsuite-ep459-sb
AG1: All-in-one daily nutrition drinks.
Go to lexfridman.com/s/ag1-ep459-sb

OUTLINE:
0:00 - Introduction
3:33 - DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3
25:07 - Low cost of training
51:25 - DeepSeek compute cluster
58:57 - Export controls on GPUs to China
1:09:16 - AGI timeline
1:18:41 - China's manufacturing capacity
1:26:36 - Cold war with China
1:31:05 - TSMC and Taiwan
1:54:44 - Best GPUs for AI
2:09:36 - Why DeepSeek is so cheap
2:22:55 - Espionage
2:31:57 - Censorship
2:44:52 - Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL
2:55:23 - OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1
3:14:31 - NVIDIA
3:18:58 - GPU smuggling
3:25:36 - DeepSeek training on OpenAI data
3:36:04 - AI megaclusters
4:11:26 - Who wins the race to AGI?
4:21:39 - AI agents
4:30:21 - Programming and AI
4:37:49 - Open source
4:47:01 - Stargate
4:54:30 - Future of AI

PODCAST LINKS:
Podcast Website: lexfridman.com/podcast
Apple Podcasts: apple.co/2lwqZIr
Spotify: spoti.fi/2nEwCF8
RSS: lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/
Podcast Playlist:    • Lex Fridman Podcast  
Clips Channel: youtube.com/lexclips

SOCIAL LINKS:
X: x.com/lexfridman
Instagram: instagram.com/lexfridman
TikTok: tiktok.com/@lexfridman
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/lexfridman
Facebook: facebook.com/lexfridman
Patreon: patreon.com/lexfridman
Telegram: t.me/lexfridman
Reddit: reddit.com/r/lexfridman